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基金經理觀點
> 正文
百威亞太利潤率有望擴張
3/12/2024 10:20:26 AM
百威亞太(01876.HK)是一家主要從事啤酒釀造和分銷的公司。除了自身生產外,公司還分銷超過50個品牌,包括Budweiser、Stella Artois、Corona、Hoegaarden、Cass和Harbin,主要市場包括中國、南韓、印度和越南。公司將亞洲業務分為兩部分,太平洋西部(約佔總收入或稅息折攤前利潤(EBITDA)80%)和太平洋東部(約佔餘下20%)。
利潤率擴張
自2019年上市以來,百威一直在國內和韓國推廣高端化戰略,導致2023年集團平均銷售價格(Average Sales Price)(不包括外匯)比2019年水平高14%,盈利率卻比2019年低3個百分點(EBITDA毛利率亦同)。隨著成本通脹(主要利潤率下跌原因)有望在2024年逆勢改善,預計公司利潤率將逐漸恢復。根據公司公告,2023年第四季度EBITDA同比增長31%,EBITDA毛利率提高351個基點,公司將繼續推動高端化、恢復渠道收入和推出更好的品牌組合。隨著實體店和線下顧客流量回升,高端和超高端市場持續表現強勁,有助推動利潤率擴大。
銷售有望持續增長
國內和印度市場將繼續在2024年增長,而由於競爭對手推出新產品,以及日本品牌回歸當地市場,南韓市場可能會面臨更大的競爭壓力。公司目標是以高單位數銷售增長方案、穩定商品成本、提高營運效率等策略,以擴大今年EBITDA利潤率。雖然普遍消費情緒疲軟,但公司在高端市場上的市場份額增加,國內業務銷售增長仍然強勁。隨著競爭加劇,為維持市場份額,其南韓業務促銷和廣告費用可能逐漸回升,但預計調高售價能抵消有關支出。印度業務是全球第四大市場,公司品牌價值強勁,預計會繼續實現強勁銷售增長。
股息吸引
管理層提議2023年股息為7億美元,佔淨現金預算23%,股息支付比例為82%。公司仍然致力於前三大資本配置優先事項:(1)追求戰略性非有機機會(保持開放態度,尋找合適併購);(2)投資有機增長項目(目標穩定之商業投資佔銷售額比例;未來資本支出會在印度增加) ;(3)與股東分享利潤。公司相信其現金生產能力足以完成這三項優先事項,並建議2023年支付股息。
根據折現現金流模型,假設加權平均資本成本為10.8%,終端增長率為1.8%,模型得出目標價格為11.5港元,意味著2024年PE值為25倍,企業價值倍數(EV/EBITDA)為9.5倍。 長線投資者可考慮以目前較低價格入市。
黃偉棠
時富時富金融研究部
於香港和美國金融服務業擁有超過20年豐富經驗,擅長於投資、基金管理、資產管理、股票研究等多個範疇。持有美國加州柏克萊大學和香港大學多個碩士及學士學位、亦為註冊會計師 (CPA)、特許金融分析師(CFA),以及大學高級講師。
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