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Please be advised that CFSG has revised its Terms and Conditions effective on 13 May 2024. The latest version is CFSG Terms & Conditions - Version 20.
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基金經理觀點
> 正文
中國鐵塔利潤前景可觀
3/26/2024 1:51:19 PM
中國鐵塔(00788.HK)是一家電訊公司,在全國範圍內提供電訊相關服務,包括提供電訊鐵塔建設、鐵塔維護、附屬設施管理和其他服務。
5G導向應用開始普及;營運現金流及紅利增加
電訊營運商在盈利能力較低的情况下會削減5G網絡開支費用,轉向工業數字化,中國鐵塔在未來三年內保持目前5G業務的收益狀況預計會較為困難;而非電訊業務擴張現時還未能推動收入增長。但與中移動和其他營運商續租價格協議可能會為公司收入提供保障至2027年。隨著折舊和財務成本下降,公司淨利潤和現金流量應該會超過預期。
此外,即使中移動和其他競爭對手削減開支,將新網絡組件降至低頻譜和小型基站,中國5G網絡仍會繼續推出,且中興通訊的電訊設備建設可能會持續給公司帶來訂單流。在5G導向應用開始起飛之前,對公司基礎設施需求可能會有一定影響。事實上,市場預計5G網絡的推動將在2024年轉為積極,有利於公司主要業務。另外,2023年期間,公司與三大電訊營運商將新租賃條款轉為延緩應收賬款,令營運現金流預計在今年回升至超過600億元人民幣,並在經歷過2023年下降近50%後恢復穩定增長。在鐵塔租賃率穩定後,收入增長可能會回歸至中等單位數。雖然智能塔和其他非電訊業務人員和開發費用增加,稅息折攤前利潤(EBITDA)率可能面臨壓力,但通過提高效率和減少財務成本,預測公司淨利潤仍會實現中等增長。公司將股息支付比率從2023年的72%提高至75%,反映對淨利潤和現金流量增長的信心。
費用得到優化,股息率保持增長
得益於2015年收購鐵塔折舊週期完成,中國鐵塔2025年折舊和攤銷費用應該會減少;同時公司未來幾年股息支付率逐步增加,加上國有企業在市場上被稱為"中特股",公司股價目前已上漲超過10%(相對於恒指的-5%)。預計公司在2025年後的盈利增長應該會更快,且公司股息收益率在2024年會保持在4-5%。
假設市場風險溢價為7.5%,無風險利率為2.8%,貝塔指數為1.05,永續增長率為1.3%,加權平均成本資本率為10.5%,公司目標價格應該在每股1.15港元左右。這對應公司2024年3.5倍企業倍值(EV / EBITDA)、15倍市盈率(P / E)和4.5%的股息收益率(Dividend yield)。長期投資者可考慮此股票。
黃偉棠
時富時富金融研究部
於香港和美國金融服務業擁有超過20年豐富經驗,擅長於投資、基金管理、資產管理、股票研究等多個範疇。持有美國加州柏克萊大學和香港大學多個碩士及學士學位、亦為註冊會計師 (CPA)、特許金融分析師(CFA),以及大學高級講師。
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