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Please be advised that CFSG has revised its Terms and Conditions effective on 13 May 2024. The latest version is CFSG Terms & Conditions - Version 20.
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基金經理觀點
> 正文
信義光能增長前景明朗
4/26/2024 11:09:18 AM
信義光能(00968.HK)致力於生產可再生能源產品,提供各種太陽能玻璃和其他相關產品,服務全球客戶。截至2023財報年度,公司在太陽能玻璃生產中佔 30-40% 市場份額,且控制成本方面處於領先地位。太陽能玻璃處於上行週期,通過容量控制有助於維持需求和供應生態,為行內企業帶來更豐厚的盈利。
上月管理層會議後,得益於良好業績和前景報告,股價在短短兩週內從每股4港元上漲到近6.8港元,但隨後回落至目前每股約5.1-5.3港元水平,因此為中期投資者創造了絕佳入市機會。
需求/供應前景穩定
公司管理層預計2024年年度需求/供應前景基本穩定。管理層預計太陽能需求增長超過 20%,而太陽能玻璃需求增長可達 25-30%。同時,2024年行業太陽能玻璃產有望擴張至每天2萬噸,與 2023 年相似(年底產能達每天10萬噸),但產能增長率較低。因此,2024年年度需求和供應動態應更加平衡。
維持成本控制領先地位
管理層認為公司應能保持其成本控制領先地位。目前太陽能玻璃製造競爭格局仍然穩定,雖然平板玻璃(Flat Glass)仍然是信義在該業務領域的主要競爭對手,但在生產成本上信義依然領先競爭對手約 15%。在季節性疲軟之後,價格和盈利能力應有所改善。由於信義庫存水平仍然很低(約 20 天),因此在 4 月份引發太陽能玻璃價格上漲和第二季利潤擴張,加上國內新年影響及海外市場庫存消耗引致第一季季節性需求疲軟,信義在 4 月份發出強勁價格展望。根據計算,因2023年下半年每平方米的毛利從底部反彈,太陽能玻璃毛利從 2023年同比增加 20%,貢獻了公司總毛利的 71%。
2024年將增加生產力
信義在 2023 年增加了6條生產線,截至 2023 年底,總日熔化力達每天 25,800 噸。公司計劃在 2024 年再增加 6 條生產線,包括4條在安徽蕪湖和2條在馬來西亞,總產能為每天6,400 噸。估計其有效產能將同比增加約 32%,至 2024 年每天約 28,000噸。
考慮到其加權平均資本成本為11%,預期總收入約為320億港元,毛利率保守估計為26%,2024年每股收益為0.55港元。基於5%的股息收益率,折扣現金流模型預測目標價為6.5港元,中期投資者可考慮此股票。
黃偉棠
時富時富金融研究部
於香港和美國金融服務業擁有超過20年豐富經驗,擅長於投資、基金管理、資產管理、股票研究等多個範疇。持有美國加州柏克萊大學和香港大學多個碩士及學士學位、亦為註冊會計師 (CPA)、特許金融分析師(CFA),以及大學高級講師。
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